A year after nearly 130 countries pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity at the COP28 UN climate conference, national targets have remained largely unchanged.
London-based international energy think tank Ember analyzed the national renewable energy targets of 96 countries and the European Union by 2030. These countries account for 96% of the world’s renewable energy capacity, 95% of global electricity demand, and 94% of energy sector emissions. Of these 96 countries, 83 have national renewable energy targets for 2030.
According to the analysis, at last year’s COP28 UN climate conference in Dubai, 130 countries pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030.
However, governments’ national renewable energy targets have remained largely unchanged over the past year. As of October 2024, only 8 countries have updated their renewable energy targets, resulting in an increase in global renewable energy targets of only 4 gigawatts.
Countries' total national renewable energy targets by 2030 are 7,242 gigawatts, 2.1 times greater than the installed capacity of 3,380 gigawatts in 2022. An additional 3,760 gigawatts of capacity must be installed to achieve the goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030.
- Market expectations have risen
During this period, despite the lack of progress in government targets, renewable energy markets have matured and expectations for solar have risen. Thus, government targets have lagged significantly behind the growth of solar power.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its solar growth forecasts to 2030 by 22% in the last 12 months.
For wind power, governments’ national targets only call for a doubling of capacity by 2030. Projections show that global wind capacity will reach around 2,100 gigawatts by 2030, comparable to the sum of national targets but below the global tripling target.
The analysis found that in important regions of the world such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), sub-Saharan Africa, Eurasia, Latin America and Asia, there is a significant gap between overall regional targets and the capacity needed to triple renewable energy production by 2030.
- Energy storage targets are insufficient
COP29 Presidency unveils new vision for global energy storage capacity. The vision calls for global energy storage capacity to increase sixfold from 2022 levels to 1,500 gigawatts by 2030.
Of the 96 countries included in Ember’s analysis, only 30 have such national energy storage targets, and their combined 2030 targets are 284 gigawatts. That’s well short of the 1,500 gigawatt target.
Commenting on the analysis, Ember energy analyst Katje Altieri noted that renewable energy markets are maturing, but government targets remain stagnant: “Renewables are growing faster than expected every year, and that’s coupled with falling prices. Markets are growing, but countries are still struggling to set sufficient targets.”
